Quality stock
investments have a significant margin-of-safety between
intrinsic value and price. Quality businesses have an intrinsic
value which is sound and reliable. The Equity Policy is to buy quality
stock investments and quality businesses.
Quality
stock investments have a single characteristic – low price
relative to intrinsic value. Elaboration would require a discussion
of how to calculate intrinsic value, which is beyond the scope of
this policy. Quality businesses have several key characteristics,
a discussion of which comprises the remainder of this section.
Net
cash income is the substance of intrinsic value. Therefore, business
quality is contingent upon the nature, protection, and use of corporate
net income. The following are required business quality characteristics:
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1. Net income can be counted on for many years in the future.
2. Debt can be serviced regardless
of economic conditions.
3.
Capital is either productively employed or returned to shareholders.
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The following
characteristics of business quality are desired, but not required:
(a) a high return on capital, and (b) the potential for long-term
growth. The duration of high returns and growth are estimated conservatively,
since the future is unknown and high growth / high return companies
attract competition.
Quality
is as important in the investor’s understanding of a business
as it is in the business itself. The factors behind a company’s
financials – products, markets, management, and competition
– are thoroughly examined. Factors responsible for the company’s
past record must be relatively stable. Continuity between past and
future is an essential element of business quality.
Two
additional behind-the-financials quality characteristics bear attention:
(a) management is forthright and competent, and (b) the company
possesses a strong and persistent competitive advantage. The former
is required; the latter is desired.
Diversification
is spreading small investment commitments among a wide variety of
selections. The object is to protect against a poor overall result
due to poor results from one or several selections. Selectivity
is concentrating investment commitments in a limited number of securities.
The object is to two-fold: (a) protect against a poor overall result
due to poor returns from low-quality businesses and over-valued
securities, and (b) increase returns by focusing on the best opportunities.
Policy
regarding diversification and selectivity is to strike a balance
between the two which seeks protection first and increased return
second. The optimal balance depends on market conditions. In over-valued
markets with limited opportunities, a sufficient number of holdings
must be balanced with a sufficient margin-of-safety in each holding.
In under-valued markets with numerous opportunities, a sufficient
number of holdings must be balanced with a limited number of the
best opportunities.
The
following portfolio holding guidelines were designed to achieve
the balance described above. Expected holdings during normal periods
are twenty to twenty-five stocks. Maximum security position size
at purchase is 10%. Maximum security position size at market is
20%. Maximum industry position size at cost is 15%. Maximum industry
position size at market is 30%. Maximum levels are rarely expected
to be reached. Requirements at the maximum purchase level are exceptional
quality and extreme under-valuation.
There are no restrictions based on company size. Size generally
adds an element of safety. However, there are large companies which
are riskier than some smaller companies. Risk includes many more
elements than size.
Larger
companies are more likely to be purchased because of the safety
and competitive advantage their market standing sometimes confers.
However, business quality and valuation remain the primary selection
determinants.
The
portfolio will typically contain a mix of large, mid-sized, and
small companies.
Businesses are
purchased for long run earnings accumulation rather than short run
price appreciation. Many years are required for an appreciable portion
of earnings to accumulate, even relative to a reasonable purchase
price or rapid growth rate. Therefore, the anticipated holding period
at purchase is at least 10 years.
Sales
occur under three general conditions: (1) an unanticipated change
at the company (2) an error in the analysis of the company, (3)
a significant price increase coupled with the opportunity to buy
an under-valued security. Regarding the first two conditions, businesses
and industries change and analytical errors occur. Quick action
is taken after coming to conclusions in these cases. Regarding the
third condition, while long run earnings accumulation is the reason
for stock purchases, the opportunity to profit from unexpected price
increases will be acted upon.
The
margin-of-safety principle applies on all sales. Price must be significantly
higher than value to assure that selling is more profitable than
holding. The expense of selling is certain; the outcome is not.
The margin-of-safety requirement on both sales and purchases generally
slows purchase and sale activity, since significant margins on both
sides are typically infrequent. For taxable accounts, a significantly
higher margin-of-safety is required to cover the capital gain tax
(see the section “Taxes”).
The difference
between dividend income and capital appreciation is primarily an
issue of timing. Dividends are paid at management’s discretion;
capital appreciation is realized at sale. Both are the direct result
of the company’s net income. Cash dividends are paid directly
from the company’s net income. Capital appreciation results
from the company successfully reinvesting its net income.
Neither
dividend paying nor capital growth companies are preferred. Rather,
companies are selected because they possess strong operating characteristics
and managers who deploy net income effectively. Managers should
reinvest net income only at satisfactory rates of return. Otherwise,
dividends should be paid or shares repurchased (when at low or fair
prices).
The
best stock portfolio will have some stocks that pay high dividends
and others that pay low or no dividends. The bottom-line is total
return from both dividends and capital appreciation.
Taxes are explicitly considered in taxable accounts. The income
and capital gains rates of tax paying owners or beneficiaries are
recorded. Securities are then evaluated for purchase or sale based
on expected after-tax returns.
Regarding
stock sales, a stock that is purchased to replace a stock that is
sold must perform well enough to cover the capital gains taxes on
the stock sold. The difference must be significant and clear, since
taxes are certain and expected returns are estimates.
The
objective is to maximize after-tax returns. It is accomplished
by directly incorporating investor tax rates into stock valuations.
The performance
objective is to provide satisfactory results in the long run, and
to preserve capital from permanent loss during periods of economic
decline.
“Satisfactory”
is earning a return which is fair when considering the risk taken.
Each stock is assigned a “required return” which reflects
its risk. This is also the return (or discount rate) which equates
its present value with its future dividends or free cash flows.
The portfolio’s average required return is therefore a good
proxy for its expected return – since stock price, discount
rate, and corporate performance (dividend payments and business
growth) are mathematically interdependent. It is also a conservative
proxy, since purchases are made with a significant margin of safety
and valuation inputs are estimated conservatively.
The
level at which the required return is set, in addition to being
effected by the risk of each individual stock, is effected by general
price levels and interest rates. For example, when interest rates
are low and stock prices are high, the portfolio expected return
may be 10%. Conversely, when stock prices are unusually depressed,
the portfolio expected return may be 15%. In summary, clients are
given a specific expected return. This expected return is the primary
benchmark for the portfolio.
“Long
run” is a period of at least ten years. The long run objective
is appropriate given the nature of fundamental operating performance
and the potential for its separation from stock price performance.
Fundamental operating performance consists of business growth and
dividend payments. Stock price performance is based on the collective
opinions of market participants. A long time is necessary for intrinsic
value to accumulate via business growth and dividend payments, and
a long time may be necessary for stock price to adjust accordingly.
The
expected return will usually be higher or near the expected return
for the overall market averages, since discipline regarding market
valuation and required-return-setting is rigorous. The market averages
are defined by three indexes: the S&P 500 Index, the S&P
400 Mid-Cap Index, and the Russell 2000 Index. These three indexes
are of large, medium, and small companies, respectively. They represent
the entire public company marketplace and the universe from which
selections are made. They serve as a secondary portfolio benchmark.
Returns
may vary widely, either positively or negatively, from one or all
of these indexes over ten year periods or less. Stock portfolios
are not constructed to minimize short-term return differences from
certain indexes. The focus is on selecting the highest returning
individual issues for the long run rather than focusing on short-term
fluctuations among groups of stocks.
The
evaluation of returns, in effect, presents only half the picture.
Risk must also be evaluated. While return data can be generated
rather easily, the quantification of risk is difficult at best.
The provision of fundamental information – such as business
descriptions, debt, profitability, and valuation ratios –
is the most effective method for assessing the risk of this strategy.
“To
preserve capital from permanent loss during periods of economic
decline” means selecting companies that can withstand practically
any economic scenario. Permanent loss occurs when a large portion
of a company’s assets or earnings becomes permanently impaired
or when an unexpected bankruptcy or liquidation occurs. The nature
of a company’s business and its financial strength are carefully
evaluated to determine its ability to weather adverse economic conditions.
   
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